As the Kathmandu elite, then led by UML prime
minister K P Oli, cosied up to the Chinese during the blockade, India watched
uncomfortably.
By Jyoti Malhotra
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Newly
elected Nepalese Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba smiles as he arrives
for his
swearing-in ceremony at the presidential building in Kathmandu, Nepal
June
7, 2017. Reuters/Navesh Chitrakar
|
Sher Bahadur Deuba has been elected Prime
Minister of Nepal at an especially fragile time in the life of the 11-year-old
Himalayan republic. Two years after the majority Madhesi population in the
Terai blocked several trading points along the southern border with India,
there remains deep-seated resentment in large parts of Nepal against the
Kathmandu elite.
Deuba inherits a divided Nepal, divided
between the Madhesis and the upper caste Bahun-Chettris of Kathmandu Valley,
with whom New Delhi has been doing business since it bailed out King Tribhuvan
in 1950.
But what is interesting in todays Nepal is
that India, which had supported the 2006 jan andolan against the monarchy which
forced King Gyanendra to hand over power to the people; has all but distanced
itself from the Madhes agitation and its demands: the right to be represented
in Parliament and other state organs on the basis of population, or the
one-man-one-vote principle.
Some would say that states must pursue power,
and that in Nepal, power has always rested in Kathmandu Valley, not the Terai.
And therefore, they would say, India cannot afford to take the high moral
ground and continue to interminably support the Madhesis, who constitute 19.3
per cent of Nepal’s 28.5 million population. They would also argue that the
Indian support of the rights of the Madhesis, and consequently the 135-day
blockade they mounted from October 2015-February 2016 to demand those rights,
has run its course and that it’s time to turn the page. (Forty five people were
killed in the agitation then, including one Indian national, and all of Nepal,
especially the Terai, had suffered hardships as essential supplies grew
scarce.) However, among the Madhesis in towns such as Birgunj, Janakpur and
Biratnagar there is a feeling that India has abandoned the Madhesi cause.
As the Kathmandu elite, then led by UML prime
minister K P Oli, warmed up to the Chinese during the blockade, India watched
uncomfortably. Certainly, it is this fear of the Chinese dragon expanding its
presence across Nepal including in the Terai plains which neighbour Bihar,
Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana and West Bengal that has forced India to
postpone the big fight on behalf of the Madhesis.
K P Oli began to openly woo both the Chinese
as well as King Gyanendra when he suspected that the Madhesis may actually come
into their own with the help of his former benefactor, India. India watched
with growing apprehension as Oli and his foreign minister, the pro-royal Kamal
Thapa, promised the Chinese in March 2016 that it would allow them to open
another consulate in the picturesque hill town of Pokhara. Beijing had already
tempted Oli by offering him Nepali consulates in Lhasa and Guangzhou.
In addition, Oli agreed that the People’s
Bank of China could open two more branches in the Terai, apart from the one it
already had in Lumbini, where the Chinese are helping revamp the birthplace of
the Buddha. The Chinese Northwest Civil Aviation Airport Construction Group is
building the Gautam Buddha international airport in nearby Bhairahawa.
Then Deuba’s predecessor, Pushpa Kamal Dahal
or Prachanda — who knows India well since 2005 when he lived underground in the
neighbourhoods of Delhi and Noida to escape the wrath of King Gyanendra did
something interesting. He put the Chinese bank projects on hold.
India, which had ironically played a key role
in Prachanda’s dismissal in 2008-9 and helped Oli become prime minister, once
again came out in support of the Maoist leader. It is no secret that Delhi,
upset with Oli’s ‘betrayal’ of Madhesi aspirations as well as his solicitations
of the Chinese, persuaded its old ally, the Nepali Congress, as well as Madhesi
parties to unseat Oli; soon it had brokered a rotating prime ministership
between Prachanda and Deuba.
Deuba’s ascension to the prime minister’s
chair last week, for the fourth time in his political life, is part of this
Delhi-brokered agreement. But sometime midway during Prachanda’s tenure, Delhi
lost its nerve on the Madhes issue, fearful that the Chinese were expanding its
presence in India’s traditional sphere of influence.
The Chinese were pouring money into Nepal,
announcing projects everywhere, including in the Terai. Prachanda’s deputy
prime minister, Krishna Bahadur Mahara, flew to Beijing to sign on the Belt and
Road Initiative. For the first time, Nepal agreed that its defence forces would
participate in exercises with the Chinese.
Meanwhile, after the Madhesi andolan ended on
an indistinct note in February 2016, several Madhesi leaders went their own
ways. Bijay Gacchedar and Upendra Yadav floated their own parties and fell in
line with Kathmandu. Others, like Rajendra Mahato and Mahant Thakur, were
persuaded by Delhi to form a coalition, the Rashtriya Janata Party of Nepal,
along with the smaller Madhesi parties.
Delhi now hopes that Deuba, an able Nepali
Congress leader, will amend the Constitution on the provincial boundary
question as the Madhesis have long demanded; after all, the RJPN and others
supported Deuba’s election on June 6.
jyoti.malhotra@expressindia.com