[Was this what Modi-Swaraj intended when they started grossly interfering in Nepal's internal affairs, alienating the people and the government from India at just the juncture when India ought to have been celebrating our neighbour agreeing on a Constitution while promising to look into issues of the Madhesi and Janjati communities that remained to be resolved?]
By Mani Shankar Aiyar
Between them, Narendra Modi and Sushma
Swaraj, who love to call others "anti-national", have succeeded in
demolishing the bulwark of India's security on its northern borders.
That bulwark was militarily strategic, but
essentially predicated upon such a warm relationship with Nepal as to make them
want to prioritize their relationship with India rather than play us off
against the Chinese. While the post-Independence period has witnessed many ups
and downs in this endeavor, we have largely succeeded maintaining an even keel
with our northern neighbour. That equilibrium has been permanently deranged as
a result of the vulgar muscularity the Modi-Swaraj duo deployed against Nepal's
sovereignty and the basic economic needs of her people when Nepal's Constituent
Assembly was moving virtually unanimously towards adopting a constitution after
seven long years of persistent effort.
Not only did we attempt, in a wholly
inappropriate imperial manner, to stall the vote until the prior conditions we
had stipulated were met, and rode roughshod over Nepalese assurances that
outstanding issues relating to the Terai would be addressed, we also conspired
with electorally discredited elements in the Terai to impose a blockade that
starved the people of Nepal of essential supplies all through the harsh winter
months. For five months, the Nepal economy was "nearly crippled"
(Rishi Iyengar in The Time, 24 March), "causing unprecedented hardship to
Nepal's people and generating strong anti-India sentiments among the country's
hill communities" (S.D. Muni in The Hindu, 28 March). Om Astha Rai, the well-known
columnist for The Nepal Times, calculated that as a result of the blockade
"Nepal lost over 200,000 jobs, inflation hit double-digits,
post-earthquake reconstruction was delayed, and the economy was devastated to
such an extent that it may take a decade to recover."
What a disaster for 56 inches of Indian
diplomacy! Instead of Nepal buckling to the pressure mounted on them by Modi
and Swaraj, "paradoxically, the blockade has brought Nepal and China even
closer", as another well-informed Kathmandu-based commentator, Biswas
Baral, has pointed out in The Wire, 28 March. Indeed, the blockade kick-started
the conclusion of as many as ten different agreements when the Nepal PM, KP Oli
Sharma, visited China for all of one whole week (20-27 March). "After
decades of running scared", observes Kanak Mani Dixit, a leading Nepal
public intellectual and one well-disposed towards India, "it has suddenly
become possible to talk to China." He adds, "A trigger was required
for Kathmandu to dare to reach out for deals with Beijing. India activated that
trigger with its blockade." (Nepali Times, 25 March)
Was this what Modi-Swaraj intended when they
started grossly interfering in Nepal's internal affairs, alienating the people
and the government from India at just the juncture when India ought to have
been celebrating our neighbour agreeing on a Constitution while promising to
look into issues of the Madhesi and Janjati communities that remained to be
resolved?
Did they really want Chinese political and
economic penetration to cross the Himalaya and reach down to the Terai? Do they
really welcome the prospect of all-weather multi-lane highways and railways
racing across the Tibetan plateau to connect the Chinese mainland not only to
Kathmandu, but eventually to Lumbini just the other side of the India-Nepal
border? Did they really desire the prospect of Nepal almost halving its
dependence on Haldia by accessing Tianjin port in China? Did they actually hope
Nepal would become part of China's One Belt-One Road plans? Do they really see
Nepal as the "economic bridge" between China and India as proclaimed
by the President Xi of China?
And did they really, really want the Nepalese
chief of army staff to rush to Beijing in the immediate wake of his PM's visit
to widen and deepen Chinese military involvement in Nepal?
If they did, well, congratulations to them on
the generosity of their hearts and the wisdom of their foresight. But as none
of these were or have ever been the goals of India's Nepal policy, do they not
need to be severely reprimanded by patriotic Indians for this gratuitous
betrayal of our national interests?
The Nepal PM gave us the opportunity to
rebuild bridges between New Delhi and Kathmandu when he came visiting in
February. While both PMs made polite noises, stressing that Oli had maintained
the tradition of Nepalese PMs visiting India first, there was no significant
development, let alone breakthrough, in either political or economic
cooperation. Indeed, relations were so frosty that not even a joint communique;
marked the end of the visit, the first time ever that a Nepalese Head of
Government departed without such a document, perhaps the first time a
distinguished visitor from abroad had ever refused to join the Indian host even
in uttering platitudes. What a contrast to Oli visiting China a month later
about which the Kathmandu Himalayan Times exulted that the agreements signed
will "greatly reduce (Nepal's) economic vulnerabilities...and will be
long-remembered by this nation for its far-reaching positive implications for
Nepal."
Not only has our pre-eminence been shattered,
we have lost the goodwill of an entire generation of Nepalese. What then was
the rationale for all that Modi-Swaraj have done in the last few months to
leach the India-Nepal relationship of every drop of the euphoria generated by
Modi's visit to Nepal in 2014 soon after he took office?
Apparently the noble need to ensure that the
Madhesis and the Janjatis and other smaller communities who inhabit the plains
of Nepal adjoining India are not given a raw deal by Kathmandu Valley and those
who live in the hills and soaring mountains of that very diverse country. Given
what happened and is happening in Sri Lanka as a result of Sinhala
majoritarianism seeking to shut out the legitimate aspirations of the Tamil
minority, or the Burmese treatment of its Rohingiya Muslims, or of the ten
million East Pakistanis who took refuge in India to escape West Pakistani
brutality in 1971, or the continuing discrimination against Hindus and
Christians in rump Pakistan, it is understandable that India should do all it
can to caution Nepal against stamping on the aspirations of their fellow
citizens of the Terai. Also, given the roti-beti rishta that much of North
Bihar has with the Madhesis, it is necessary that we do what we can, while
respecting Nepalese sovereignty, to warn them that institutionalizing
discrimination will inevitably lead to the emotional disintegration of Nepal,
and render it as two or more fractious nations within a single state. We could
and should point out that Nepal's future is tied up with equal citizenship for all their
citizens.
But is the Modi-Swaraj way the appropriate
way to do this? By emboldening the Nepalese to seek and find alternative
relationships to the Nepal-India tie, how are we advancing the plains' cause?
Not bullying but gentle persuasion is the only way we can serve Terai interests
without infringing Nepal's sovereignty. That calls for subtlety and quiet
diplomacy, not strong-arm tactics. Alas, the ways of the bully are built into
the DNA of this government. The outlook is grim.
(Mani Shankar Aiyar is former Congress MP,
Rajya Sabha.)
@ NDTV