[Should those words be translated into action after Donald J. Trump assumes the presidency on Jan. 20, it would be a remarkable change in the American approach to Beijing’s island-building in the South China Sea, which is transforming the area into what one Washington think tank said would by 2030 become “virtually a Chinese lake.” China asserts sovereignty over most of the South China Sea despite competing claims by countries including Vietnam and the Philippines and an international ruling rejecting most of Beijing’s assertions.]
By Michael Forsythe
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Rex W. Tillerson, the
nominee for secretary of state, told senators on Wednesday
that China’s actions in
the South China Sea were “akin to Russia’s taking of
Crimea.” Credit Doug
Mills/The New York Times
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HONG
KONG — Rex W. Tillerson’s
call for China to be denied access to its artificial islands in the South China
Sea, made Wednesday during his confirmation hearing for secretary of state, set
the stage for a possible crisis between the world’s two biggest economies
should his comments become official American policy.
Mr. Tillerson told members of the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee on Wednesday that China’s multibillion-dollar
island-building campaign in the oil-and-gas rich sea was illegal and “akin to
Russia’s taking of Crimea.”
“We’re going to have to send China a clear
signal that, first, the island-building stops,” Mr. Tillerson told the
senators. “And second, your access to those islands also is not going to be
allowed.”
Should those words be translated into action
after Donald J. Trump assumes the presidency on Jan. 20, it would be a
remarkable change in the American approach to Beijing’s island-building in the
South China Sea, which is transforming the area into what one Washington think
tank said would by 2030 become “virtually a Chinese lake.” China asserts
sovereignty over most of the South China Sea despite competing claims by
countries including Vietnam and the Philippines and an international ruling
rejecting most of Beijing’s assertions.
The Obama administration has challenged what
it calls China’s “excessive maritime claims” in the sea by sailing warships
close to the artificial islands, some of which feature deep harbors and runways
capable of handling jumbo jets. But that has not stopped China from continuing
its buildup, which now includes military installations such as radar stations
on more than 3,000 acres of artificial land built on reefs and shoals.
Mr. Tillerson’s comments, with the possible
implication that the United States might use its armed forces to deny the
Chinese access to the islands, garnered reactions including confusion,
disbelief and warlike threats from analysts in China.
“This is a signal, now that Trump is set to
take office, that he wants to have a tough stand on China,” said Yang Chengjun,
a retired senior colonel and military expert, who said that China’s potential
war-fighting capability was greater than America’s. “China does not stir up
troubles but we are not afraid of them when they come.”
Lu Kang, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign
Ministry, declined to answer a reporter’s question about what Beijing might do
if the United States Navy moved to deny China access to the islands, saying it
was a “hypothetical question.”
But his reaction also highlighted the
confusion sown by the testimony, because Mr. Tillerson did not explain how the
United States could block China from the islands.
“I can’t predict what Mr. Tillerson is
thinking specifically, and on the other hand, it is impossible for me to make
any prediction about China’s policy, based on your assumptions of what he
said,” Mr. Lu said.
That confusion was shared by one of China’s
most prominent experts on the South China Sea, who also questioned the legality
of any American effort to block access to the islands.
“Is this a warning? Or will this be a policy
option?” said Zhu Feng, executive director of the China Center for
Collaborative Studies of the South China Sea at Nanjing University. “If this is
a policy option, this will not be able to block China’s access to these
constructed islands. There is no legal basis.”
Mr. Trump’s transition team did not respond
to emailed questions asking for details on Mr. Tillerson’s remarks, and whether
they represented the intended policy of the United States after Mr. Trump
assumes the presidency.
What is also not clear is the extent to which
Mr. Tillerson’s tough stance on the South China Sea springs from his extensive
experience in the region during his time as chief executive of Exxon Mobil,
when his company became embroiled in bitter territorial disputes over the
extensive oil and gas reserves beneath the seafloor.
During his tenure, the company forged close
ties to the Vietnamese government, signing an agreement in 2009 with a
state-owned firm to drill for oil and gas in two areas in the South China Sea.
The agreement with PetroVietnam was signed quietly, according to a leaked
United States diplomatic cable, because it conflicted with Chinese territorial
claims.
While Exxon Mobil has some operations in
China, including a stake in a petrochemical plant in the country’s south, it
has a very small presence in the country’s huge retail market for gasoline,
which is dominated by state-owned Chinese companies. In contrast, its
agreements with Vietnam are potentially huge, given that the South China Sea
may contain 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural
gas, according to the United States Energy Information Administration.
A spokeswoman for Exxon Mobil in Singapore
did not return a phone call asking for comment about the company’s operations
in Vietnam. The Vietnamese Foreign Ministry did not reply to a request for
comment about Mr. Tillerson’s remarks.
But his statements have put further strains
on one of the world’s most important bilateral relationships. Policy directions
set by President Richard M. Nixon more than 40 years ago have remained
relatively steady under the Republican and Democratic administrations that
followed. But Mr. Trump’s talk of enacting new tariffs on Chinese goods and his
willingness to break decades of protocol by taking a phone call from Taiwan’s
president have called those policies into question.
“How much farther will the Trump
administration go?” said Mr. Zhu of Nanjing University. “When it comes to South
China Sea, we’ll have to wait and see.”
Kiki Zhao and Yufan Huang contributed
research from Beijing.