[Complex and controversial international
accords usually take several years to enter into legal force. But the haste on
the Paris accord was driven at least in part by the looming American election.
Donald J. Trump, the Republican candidate, has vowed to pull the United States
out of the accord if he is elected. If the deal comes into legal force before
the presidential inauguration, it will take four years under the accord’s rules
for the United States to legally withdraw. That would keep the country bound to
the measure through the first term of the next administration.]
By Coral Davenport
 |
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Ban Ki-moon, the United
Nations secretary general, backstage on Tuesday
at the annual session of
the General Assembly. Credit Sam
Hodgson for The New York
Times
|
UNITED
NATIONS — The United Nations
secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, is expected to announce on Wednesday that he
has secured enough commitments from world leaders to ensure that the 2015 Paris
climate accord will enter into legal force this year, binding the next American
president, whoever it is.
The milestone is in reach in large part
because Mr. Ban, who sees the climate deal as a centerpiece of his legacy,
began a sustained push to win the formal approval of 55 countries representing
55 percent of global emissions — the threshold needed to put the accord into
force. He pressed the issue personally with dozens of world leaders and with
legislative bodies, including those in Russia and his native South Korea.
“We are absolutely certain that we will have
the Paris agreement entering into force by the end of 2016,” said David
Nabarro, a special adviser to Mr. Ban.
Complex and controversial international
accords usually take several years to enter into legal force. But the haste on
the Paris accord was driven at least in part by the looming American election.
Donald J. Trump, the Republican candidate, has vowed to pull the United States
out of the accord if he is elected. If the deal comes into legal force before
the presidential inauguration, it will take four years under the accord’s rules
for the United States to legally withdraw. That would keep the country bound to
the measure through the first term of the next administration.
“We have no time,” Mr. Ban said, addressing
the General Assembly on Tuesday. “I urge you to bring the Paris agreement into
force this year.”
Nearly 400 of the world’s top scientists, including
30 Nobel laureates, on Tuesday condemned Mr. Trump’s pledge to withdraw the
United States from the Paris agreement. A decision to withdraw could fatally
undermine the accord and send a message to the rest of the world that “you are
on your own,” declared 375 members of the National Academy of Sciences, as well
as foreign affiliates of the academy. They included Stephen Hawking of the
University of Cambridge in Britain, who is perhaps the world’s most famous
living scientist; Neil deGrasse Tyson, the renowned astrophysicist and science
communicator; and the physicist Steven Chu, the Nobel laureate and former
United States energy secretary.
“The consequences of opting out of the global
community would be severe and long-lasting — for our planet’s climate and for
the international credibility of the United States,” the scientists added.
A breakthrough in the quest for quick
ratification came this month when the European Union, which represents about 10
percent of global warming emissions, set an Oct. 9 vote to join the agreement,
with or without action by its member states. The bloc has pledged under the
Paris agreement to cut its emissions 40 percent from 1990 levels by 2030, but
not all of its 28 member states are yet prepared to approve their individual
climate pledges.
That push gained unexpected momentum on
Tuesday when President Andrzej Duda of Poland declared before the General
Assembly that he expected his government to legally join the deal this year. It
had been widely expected that Poland, one of Europe’s heaviest coal polluters,
would object to the broader European body’s effort to move forward without all
of its member states.
“What is important is the heritage that we
leave to our children and grandchildren — how they will remember us, and how
they will write about us in the history books,” Mr. Duda said.
Another concern had been Britain’s vote to
leave the European Union, which advocates of the Paris deal feared would
complicate the bloc’s ratification process and raise questions about Britain’s
own climate policy. But Theresa May, the new British prime minister, pledged
before the General Assembly on Tuesday that her government too would legally join
the Paris agreement this year.
“The Parliament of Europe,” said Ségolène
Royal, the French environment minister who presided over the Paris climate
summit meeting and has taken a leading role in pushing for ratification of the
deal this year, “will be able to do it even without agreement of all 28
countries.”
At the ceremony on Wednesday, it is expected
that at least 20 other countries — including Albania, Argentina, Bolivia,
Brazil, Canada, Costa Rica, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, New Zealand and Saudi
Arabia, which together represent about 8 percent of total world emissions —
will submit their legal paperwork or pledge to do so by the end of the year,
United Nations officials said.
The governments of Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia,
Ghana, Honduras, Kuwait, Madagascar, Mali, Niger, Rwanda and Ukraine, which
together represent roughly 2 percent of global emissions, are expected to
pledge to submit their legal documentation of commitment to the Paris accord by
the end of the year.
“The Paris agreement gives a framework to
act, but there must be a sense of urgency about bringing the agreement into force,”
President Obama said on Tuesday in his last address as head of state to the
General Assembly.
The accord approached its legally binding
threshold this month after the United States and China, which together account
for nearly 40 percent of emissions, jointly announced that they would legally
join the deal. About two dozen other countries, collectively representing about
2 percent to 3 percent of global emissions, have also legally joined it.
But many of the largest polluters have not
signed on. In an interview, Ms. Royal conceded that the European Union’s power
move would inflame opposition from some member countries. “Three or four
countries will be very difficult,” she said. “But it will pass.”
Still an open question are the timetables of
the world’s three other major polluters: India, which accounts for about 7
percent of emissions, Russia, which produces about 5 percent, and Japan, which
produces about 3 percent.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India has
worked closely with Mr. Obama and Mr. Ban on the issue of climate change, but
members of his Parliament remain wary of a deal that would require emissions
cuts as the country seeks to supply cheap electricity to millions of
impoverished people.
Japanese officials say there is a good chance
that Tokyo will pass the deal in the autumn session of the Diet.
Russian officials did not respond to emailed
questions about their plans, but United Nations officials said they were
optimistic that Moscow might sign on by year’s end. President Vladimir V.
Putin, who has mocked the science of climate change, surprised many when he
showed up at the Paris accord negotiations and promised to prioritize the deal.
“Putin is having a conversation with the
Russian government,” said Robert Orr, the dean of the University of Maryland
School of Public Policy and a special adviser to Mr. Ban. “It’s one of the
governments that has surprised many with how forward-leaning they are on this.
That’s the kind of situation we would like to see.”
Mr. Orr and others noted that Russia’s
commitment under the Paris deal would not be difficult to meet — it is one of
the weakest pledges and is unlikely to do much to significantly reduce
pollution. But they said Mr. Putin’s legal acceptance of the deal would still
be valuable.
Follow Coral Davenport on Twitter
@CoralMDavenport.
Justin Gillis contributed reporting.