[At the time of Mr. Xi’s trip in September, the
Ministry of National Defense in Beijing sheepishly conceded that a Chinese
incursion into Indian territory had probably occurred, and people here know
that the troop movement, though small in the scheme of things, emboldened Mr.
Modi to warn Mr. Xi about China’s expansionist tendencies.]
BEIJING — When Chinese
troops provoked a standoff with Indian forces on a disputed border high in the
Himalayas just before President Xi Jinping of China arrived in India last year, a pall fell over what was supposed to be a
landmark visit.
That episode, emblematic of China’s recent
aggressiveness in the region, recurred in the minds of some Chinese analysts
over the past few days as China observed the warmth between President
Obama and Prime
Minister Narendra
Modi of India during Mr. Obama’s visit to New Delhi.
At the time of Mr. Xi’s trip in September, the
Ministry of National Defense in Beijing sheepishly conceded that a Chinese
incursion into Indian territory had probably occurred, and people here know
that the troop movement, though small in the scheme of things, emboldened Mr.
Modi to warn Mr. Xi about China’s expansionist tendencies.
There were no such lectures between Mr. Modi
and Mr. Obama.
“China’s primary task is to deal with India
with sophistication,” Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at
Renmin University in Beijing, said this week. “But it’s not China’s talent to
deal with India in this way.”
The reaction in China to the breadth of
strategic and economic issues discussed by the United States and India during
Mr. Obama’s visit and to their obvious, though not publicly expressed, mutual
anxiety about China has been cool but controlled.
China can see that India’s steadfast policy of
navigating an independent position, aloof from power plays in East Asia, is
crumbling under the forceful Mr. Modi. Beijing is also aware that India’s
problems with the United States, based in large part on Washington’s
relationship with India’s archenemy, Pakistan, have diminished, analysts said.
But China appears to be banking on India’s
long-held position that it will not sign up as a permanent ally of anyone,
including the United States.
Moreover, China has seemed eager not to be too
negative about the Obama visit so as not to damage the progress made during Mr.
Xi’s three days in India. Beijing sees big opportunities in Indian
infrastructure and technology projects as Mr. Modi tries to kick-start the
economy.
“We know India does not want to be part of a
containment policy against China,” said Hua Chunying, the spokeswoman for the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs here. “We believe that the zero-sum game belongs to
the last century.”
Still, China has paid close attention to the
active foreign policy of Mr. Modi, who since assuming office has cultivated not
only the United States but also Japan, China’s main rival in East Asia.
China has taken comfort in its economic
relationship with India, to which it sells far more than India sells to China.
But during a visit to New Delhi last year, the Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe,
outstripped China on the economic front in advance.
Mr. Xi promised $20 billion in investments in
India over the next five years, something of a letdown in New Delhi. Word
before his visit had put the investment at $100 billion. In contrast, Mr. Abe
had already pledged $32 billion to help improve India’s weak infrastructure.
Mr. Modi enjoys a close personal bond with Mr.
Abe, and it was at Mr. Modi’s suggestion that Japan was invited last year to
join naval exercises with the United States and India. Beijing was displeased.
Mr. Modi did not stop there: During his talks
with Mr. Obama, he suggested revitalizing a loose security network involving
the United States, India, Japan and Australia, a grouping that China views with
suspicion.
Mr. Obama persuaded Mr. Modi to sign a
statement that implicitly criticized China for its provocative moves in the
South China Sea. India had already expressed concerns about China’s behavior in
that arm of the western Pacific and is cooperating with Vietnam, another critic
of China, on an oil-drilling venture in the area’s waters.
“China feels unhappy but not surprised” about
India’s siding with the United States on the South China Sea, said Wu Xinbo,
the director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in
Shanghai. “Will that have any impact on China’s maritime policies? No. What
India can do is not substantive in the regional situation.”
China also expressed concerns this week about
Mr. Obama’s offer to support India’s membership in the 48-nation Nuclear
Suppliers Group, an organization devised to ensure that civilian nuclear trade
is not diverted for military uses.
India’s possible membership was part of a deal
between Washington and New Delhi that broke a five-year logjam preventing
American companies from building nuclear power plants in India.
India is not a signatory to the Nuclear
Nonproliferation Treaty, and if it joined the Nuclear Suppliers Group, it would
be the only member not to have signed the treaty, which is supposed to prevent
states from acquiring nuclear
weapons.
“We support the group carrying out discussions
on admitting new members, and at the same time we encourage India to take the
next steps to satisfy the relevant standards of the group,” Ms. Hua, the
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, said of India’s proposed membership.
For China, the biggest long-term worry about
the developing relationship between New Delhi and Washington may be the
advanced military technology that the United States will probably sell to
India, said Mr. Wu of the Center for American Studies.
“That will touch China’s security nerve,” he
said. “The more advanced Indian capability will increase the pressure on
China.”