President Juan Manuel
Santos predicts talks taking place in Havana will see an agreement with the
Farc by end of 2014
By
Jonathan Watts and Sibylla Brodzinsky in Bogotá
 |
| Soldiers of the guerrilla group the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (the Farc). Photograph: Sipa Press / Rex Features |
Colombia
is nearing a peace deal that could end the longest-running civil war on the
planet and significantly reduce the global supply of cocaine, according to
President Juan Manuel Santos, who predicts an agreement with Farc guerrillas
that will include the eradication of coca plantations.
Speaking to the Guardian,
Santos said that peace talks taking place in Havana had shown sufficient
progress to make 2014 a historic year.
"Hopefully by the
end of the year, we will have this deal done," he said. "It is a
tipping point. We have started not only conversations with the Farc, but a
process whereby we are building the conditions to build peace for ever, not
just for one or two years, but to change the history of this country."
Before a presidential
election in May, Santos has every reason to talk up the prospects of a deal.
Most voters have known
nothing but conflict for their entire lives: when the Farc rose up against the
state in 1964, Lyndon Johnson was in the White House, Nikita Khrushchev was in
the Kremlin and the cold war was at its height.
Over the following 50
years, Colombia's low-intensity war has caused more than 250,000 deaths and the
displacement of more than 5 million people as rebels from the Farc, ELN and
other leftwing groups clashed with government troops and rightwing paramilitaries.
Many of the armed factions finance themselves through kidnappings and drug
trafficking.
If a deal can be
reached, Santos says the biggest peace dividend for the outside world is likely
to be a cut in the supply of cocaine.
"If we can agree
to fight drug trafficking and substitute coca crops for legal crops it will
have a big impact on the world because, unfortunately, for 40 years we have
been the principal supplier of that drug."
Although the talks in
Havana are being carried out behind closed doors, some commentators expect
progress on the topic of drugs – one of five main items – to be announced
shortly as a pre-election boost for the president.
Santos is already
comfortably ahead of his rivals – the polls put him at 38% – but his victory is
not yet certain because of the high number of voters who are undecided or
threaten to express disapproval by leaving their ballots blank.
In congressional
elections in early March, his ruling coalition maintained control but saw its
majority shrink under the challenge of a new party created by the former
president Álvaro Uribe.
As these results
suggest, Santos is by no means a unifying figure for this deeply divided
nation. Instead, the president is more of a Blairite pragmatist – a political
shape-shifter who has moved successfully to occupy the central ground and now
seems intent to leave his mark on history.
Born into a powerful
newspaper-owning family, Santos studied at Kansas University and the London
School of Economics, then rose to prominence as a minister under the rightwing
administration of Uribe.
Later, however, he
enraged his former mentor when he became president, declared Venezuelan
socialist leader Hugo Chávez to be his "new best friend" and then
opened up peace talks.
His willingness to put peace
above other principles may be no bad thing in a country that has been left
bleeding and battered by decades of war.
But critics call him
fickle and rivals accuse him of making too many concessions to the Farc groups,
which have been weakened by a series of military strikes.
"There are no
conditions. The guerrillas are still attacking. They continue to be
narco-terrorists. Nothing has changed since the peace talks started," said
Óscar Iván Zuluaga, a presidential candidate for the new rightwing party
Democratic Centre, which was founded by Uribe.
Following a succession
of failed peace efforts over the past 30 years, Zuluaga also voiced doubts that
this time will be any different.
"President Santos
said there would be six months of talks, then a year, then more. He has made
this his main election issue, but he is playing with the talks. There is no
sign of real progress," Zuluaga said.
But diplomatic and
academic observers say the current negotiations have a greater chance of
success than past efforts because they have the backing of Cuba and Venezuela,
which have helped to bring the Farc to the table.
Venezuela is now bogged
down in protests and some have suggested that its president, Nicolás Maduro, is
less involved in the peace talks than his predecessor, Chávez, but Santos said
the unrest across the border had not had an impact on the negotiations, and
expressed thanks to Maduro for being "very supportive".
Speaking at the
presidential palace, Santos said he shared widespread scepticism about the
Farc's motives for entering the talks.
That is why, he said,
he could not yet elaborate on key details under discussion – such as arms decommissioning,
punishment for war crimes and participation of the Farc's candidates in future
elections: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. I use the
analogy of a painter. He doesn't allow a potential buyer to inspect the
painting when it is 20% or half done, he wants to show it when it is
completed."
But he said the overall
goal was not to humiliate the Farc but to persuade the guerrillas to swap their
guns for votes – including the Farc's smaller rival, the National Liberation
Army (ELN), which has not yet formerly entered into peace talks.
"They can continue
their objectives but through legal democratic channels. I am willing to give
them all the guarantees necessary for them to have this chance. It is up to
them if they can win or not.
"I tell them that
many former guerrillas in Latin America are now heads of state, so think about
it – let's stop the war."
His strategy is based
on peace talks around the world, including Northern Ireland. Negotiators from
the British government and the IRA have given advice.
"The preliminary
agreement we announced with the Farc was inspired by the framework agreement
with the IRA," said Santos. "The British people who have helped us
have been extremely valuable."
If a deal is done, the
president said the help of the international community would be even more
important to legitimise the implementation of the deal and to provide funds and
knowledge to help the reintegration of combatants into modern life.
As soon as the ink was
dry, he said, it would be important to move quickly or frustration, old
animosities and the logic of the drug business would erode trust and goodwill.
"What we have is
the oldest conflict in the world, the only conflict in the Americas, and it has
been a very sui generis conflict," said Santos.
"The post-conflict
is going to be as difficult as the peace process itself. And it is there where
I see the international community helping. We have a golden opportunity for
international co-operation and peace."
Two
bloody centuries
For most of its
200-year history, Colombia has been racked with deadly unrest. After eight
civil wars in the 19th century, the current conflict has its origins in the
1948 riots sparked by the assassination of Liberal leader Jorge Eliécer Gaitán.
La Violencia, as that episode was known, was followed five years later by a
military coup.
Campesinos in the
countryside – who long felt abandoned by urban politicians – formed rebel
groups. Full-scale civil war erupted in 1962, when leftwing guerrilla
organisations, including the Farc, ELN (National Liberation Army) and M-19 (The
19 April Movement) clashed repeatedly with the army, rightwing paramilitaries
and each other for control of land, funds and drug plantations.
It is estimated that
the fighting has killed 220,000 people and displaced 4.3 million.
The current peace talks
come amid stronger backing from Venezuela and other neighbouring countries and
signs that the Farc – easily the largest of the guerrilla groups – is losing
strength because of army campaigns and desertion.
However, the experience
of the past two bloody centuries suggests that any deal has to be comprehensive
and inclusive or it will generate new resentments and fresh causes of violence.