[Mr. Xi could appear
publicly at any time and quash the speculation about his status. But for now
rumors are replacing real information, with one of the most common being that
he hurt his back playing sports. Popular Internet search sites have aggressively
removed references to Mr. Xi and have even blocked searches for “back injury.”]
By Ian Johnson
 |
Li Tao/Xinhua, via Associated Press
Vice President Xi Jinping addressed the Communist Party of China
in Beijing on Sept. 1.
|
BEIJING —
The strange disappearance from public view of China’s presumptive new
leader is turning a year that was supposed to showcase the Communist Party’s
stability into something of an annus horribilis.
Over the past week, the
new leader, Xi Jinping, has missed at least three
scheduled meetings with foreign dignitaries, including Secretary of State
Hillary Rodham Clinton last Wednesday and the prime minister of Denmark on
Monday. So far officials have declined to provide an explanation for his absences.
That set off furious
speculation on the Internet that the 59-year-old Mr. Xi’s health, either
physical or political, has taken a turn for the worse. Some diplomats say they
have heard that Mr. Xi suffered a pulled muscle while swimming or playing soccer.
One media report, since retracted, had it that Mr. Xi was hurt in an auto
accident when a military official tried to injure or kill him in a revenge
plot. A well-connected political analysts in Beijing said in an interview that
Mr. Xi may have had a mild heart attack.
Whatever the actual
reason, Mr. Xi’s unexplained absences are conspicuous on the eve of what is
supposed to be China’s once-in-a-decade transfer of power. It also adds to a
litany of woes that have disrupted the Communist Party’s hopes that a seamless
political transition would send a signal of stability to the Chinese people and
the world at large.
Two unusual political
scandals have sidelined people considered contenders for seats on the
all-powerful Politburo Standing Committee, most recently including a close ally
of President Hu Jintao’s. China’s economy has fallen into an unexpectedly deep
slump, confounding government forecasts for a measured slowdown. Party leaders
have also yet to announce a date for the 18th Party Congress, the event to mark
the retirement of this generation of leaders and the accession of the next,
though it is supposed to take place as soon as next month.
Mr. Xi was designated
internally as the presumptive heir to Mr. Hu as the leader of the Communist
Party, head of state and chairman of the top military oversight body in 2007, a
full five years before he was expected to assume those posts. Party bosses have
tried to name future leaders well in advance to prevent destabilizing jockeying
for power. Smooth transitions are considered by many Chinese as a crucial test
of the Communist Party’s longevity, and its leaders are eager to make the case
that their authoritarian system can manage China better than a multiparty
democracy could.
Analysts who follow
Chinese politics say the transition is still likely to happen roughly along the
planned lines. They also say that the core leadership team around Mr. Xi is
slowly taking shape, with the lineup of the Standing Committee coming into
focus as the congress draws near.
But at the very least,
the atmospherics are turning out to be far messier than envisioned, with
officials stumbling to maintain their usual careful choreography.
Last Wednesday, after Mr. Xi did not meet Mrs. Clinton and Prime
Minister Lee Hsien Loong of Singapore, diplomats said privately that he had a
bad back.
On Monday, the situation
got odder. Foreign journalists had been invited to a photo opportunity between
Mr. Xi and Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt of Denmark. On Monday,
however, the Foreign Ministry denied that any such meeting had been scheduled
and said other Chinese officials would meet the Danish leader.
“We have told everybody
everything,” said a Foreign Ministry spokesman, Hong Lei.
While Chinese leaders
often do not appear in public for long periods, canceling meetings with foreign
dignitaries at the last minute is highly unusual. Adding to the uncertainty is
the lack of an official statement of any kind, with observers speculating about
car crashes and heart attacks.
“There’s every sort of
crazy rumor about Xi’s health,” said a senior Chinese journalist, who asked not
to be identified due to the sensitivity surrounding the case. “But no one is
saying anything.”
Mr. Xi’s absence comes
during a year when the Chinese political system has suffered serious blows.
This spring, senior
leader Bo Xilai vanished from view and soon after his wife was charged with
murdering a British businessman. She was eventually tried and convicted over the summer, and his
police chief, Wang Lijun, who has been accused of covering up the murder and
other crimes, could face trial soon.
The scandal threatened
to upset the complex political calculations that underlie the transition
because Mr. Bo was popular among an influential wing of reform skeptics, many
of whom decry the country’s widening wealth gap. So even though Mr. Bo’s own
case still has not been handled, sorting out his wife and closest associates
was seen as an important step to get the transition back on track, implying
that senior leaders were united on how to deal with Mr. Bo.
But no sooner had these
problems been cleared than one of Mr. Hu’s closest allies was sidelined in
unusual circumstances.
Ling Jihua had headed
the party’s General Office, a position similar to chief of staff. He was
expected to be replaced so that Mr. Xi could bring in his own man, but he
departed the position unusually early to a job that many saw as a demotion.
Some sources say it was because of a car crash earlier this year involving a
Ferrari: his son was at the wheel and died, and two female companions were
seriously injured. The episode exposed the fabulous wealth and extravagant lifestyles that
some leaders’ family members acquire.
Adding to the
uncertainty is that no date has been set for the party congress. Political
experts expected the date to be finalized by now, contributing to speculation
that the final lineup of the new leadership remains unsettled.
Party congresses are
held every five years, generally in October. In 2007, the year of the previous
congress, the October date had been announced by August.
“These are not signs
that everything is going well,” said Bo Zhiyue, a political science professor
at the National University of Singapore. “Negotiations seem to be going on.”
China’s political system
has long been a black box, but its all-encompassing secrecy has begun to seem
anachronistic as the country has become one of the world’s biggest economic,
political and military powers.
“Authorities are worried
about anything that may tarnish the transition,” said Joseph Y. S. Cheng, a
political science professor at the City University of Hong Kong. “But this
concern is working against their interests; they should come out with a clear
statement” about Mr. Xi’s whereabouts.
Mr. Xi could appear
publicly at any time and quash the speculation about his status. But for now
rumors are replacing real information, with one of the most common being that
he hurt his back playing sports. Popular Internet search sites have aggressively
removed references to Mr. Xi and have even blocked searches for “back injury.”
One well-connected
political analyst in Beijing said Mr. Xi had suffered a mild heart attack but
that it was not serious enough to prevent him from assuming China’s top
positions.
“They say it won’t
affect the party meeting,” the analyst said.
As if to assuage worries
about Mr. Xi’s health, a newspaper on Monday ran a picture of Mr. Xi addressing
students at the opening of the fall semester of the Central Party School. The
photo and speech, however, were from Sept. 1, the last confirmed date of Mr.
Xi’s being seen in public.
Patrick Zuo contributed research in Beijing.
Jonathan Ansfield contributed reporting in Beijing.